On June 11th, the day before SpaceX went public, I told you buying an IPO priced at roughly 93 times revenue was ridiculous.
As a reminder… Amazon went public at 3 times revenue… Google at 7 times… Meta, the most expensive at 20 times…
(and Meta still lost half its value in its first year as a public company)
Now just a month later, SPCX is down roughly 40% from its post-IPO high.
The stock opened its first trading day at $150, above the $135 IPO price, and closed at $161, a 19% gain that valued the company at roughly $2.1 trillion. Four days later, on June 16th, it hit an all-time high of $225.64.
That's a 67% gain from the IPO price in under a week, and it made Elon Musk, on paper, the first person in history worth a trillion dollars.
Then it just… kept sliding. And yesterday, SPCX dipped below the IPO price
Even the former Nasdaq chief Robert Greifeld described SpaceX as a stock that's "not trading on fundamentals"
That was the entire argument I made to you before the stock even opened. It just took the market four weeks to agree with it.
2 trillion-dollar valuation to underwater in a month.
Here's what I keep coming back to...
Ivy turns 2 next week… and if an almost-2-year-old teaches you anything… it's that wanting something right now… doesn't mean right now is the right time to have it.
The math on SpaceX wasn't a secret before the stock listed. It was sitting in the S-1 filing for anyone who wanted to look.
But being right about a valuation doesn't feel satisfying in the moment.
It feels boring, because boring is what "wait for the number to make sense" sounds like while everyone else is celebrating the biggest IPO of all time.
It only feels satisfying a month later, when the chart catches up to the numbers… and methinks there’s still a ways to go because the first insider unlock happens next month… with 4 more unlocks to come this year alone… each one applying a new level of selling pressure.
Oliver