On Monday morning, Trump had promised to wipe out Iran's civilisation entirely… unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened by Wednesday.
A tense day followed… and it looked like it was going down to the wire…
But late last night, they agreed a two-week ceasefire…
Sending stock futures surging… and oil falling off a cliff.
Markets around the world jumped 3-5% on the news… The SPY is up 2.5% pre-market before I’ve even finished coffee number 1… and certain stocks like SK Hynix are up double digits today.
And so naturally my inbox has started filling up with variations of the same message…
Is it over?
Can I relax now?
My honest answer is… probably not yet.
The ceasefire is two weeks.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council said its fingers are "on the trigger" ahead of more talks on Friday.
Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have already reported fresh missile attacks after the agreement was announced. And while Israel said the deal doesn't apply to Lebanon... Pakistan says it does.
So it’s already clear… this is a pause… rather than an outright peace agreement.
Now, with all that said… I'm not writing this to be a wet blanket on a genuinely decent day.
Green days are great, I’d want them every day if I had my way.
And a 2.5% move in the SPY in a single session is real money for anyone
But you know what I say on the bad days...
Don't panic… zoom out… trust the process.
Well the same logic runs in reverse…
Because euphoria is just panic with better optics… it can still get you into trouble.
The investors who make lasting money aren't the ones who go all-in after a headline rally.
They're the ones who treat green days and red days with roughly equal suspicion... stay in quality positions... keep collecting income from the Wheel... and don't let the news cycle dictate which stocks you buy.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still live…
For all we know the ceasefire could collapse by sundown.
And if it does, the same investors who were celebrating this morning will be the ones panic-selling at the bottom.
Use today wisely. Take some profits if you've been sitting on them. Review your positions. Make sure you have cash ready to deploy if things get choppy again.
And if you want to be in a room with serious investors talking through exactly this kind of environment, I'll be at Investormania in Tampa on May 14-16.
It's where we get into the real stuff… like how to position for volatility… how to keep generating income regardless of what the Middle East does next… and how to build a portfolio that doesn't need you to predict the news.
Oliver