I’ve been overwhelmed with the positive response to next week’s Money Windows training… and so many of you have written me as to how excited you are…
But as always, there are a few skeptics in the ranks…
And one question has come up more than any other
“This just sounds like trying to time the market, I thought you were against that?”
And it’s a valid point, one I agree with.
Trying to predict which exact days the market will rise or fall, then jumping in and out accordingly, is a losing game for the individual investor.
You’re competing against the smartest minds on the planet with insanely complex algorithms and order fills direct from the market maker… versus you with a 5 minute chart and a Schwab account
So if someone tells you they've found a way to predict daily market's movements based on the time of year, you should be deeply suspicious.
But that is not what we're doing with Money Windows.
Market timing tries to predict what the market will do…
That's a massive difference…
Nobody can tell you with certainty that Apple will rise during the next 60 days…
What the data can tell you is that, across 20 years, the stock has risen in that window 17 times out of 20, with an average return of 13.49%.
So we’re not trying to predict anything… we’re going off the probability, built from two decades of actual outcomes, including the years it didn't work.
This is closer to the logic an actuary uses to price an insurance policy than the logic a fortune teller uses to predict next week's lottery numbers.
Nobody knows which individual house will catch on fire… But across thousands of houses, the pattern is reliable enough to build a business on.
Timing the market is trying to predict the unpredictable…
Money Windows is paying attention to a pattern that has already shown up, again and again, and deciding whether it's worth weighting your decisions around.
On June 25th, I'll walk you through exactly how I draw that line ourselves. Not every seasonal pattern is worth your attention…
So if you’ve been hesistant up until now… consider this your chance to reconsider…
Oliver