In 1966, England won the World Cup.
In the sixty years since, they’ve failed to repeat that feat.
They’ve come close… going out on penalties a handful of times… to the point where losing on penalties has become something close to a national tradition like queuing and complaining about the weather.
But every four years, the same cycle plays out.
The hype builds… World in Motion by New Order gets airtime again… and an entire nation convinces themselves this is the year.
And by the quarter-finals, most people have talked themselves into believing their team is nailed on.
Then, inevitably, heartbreak.
So today, the 2026 World Cup kicks off across the United States, Canada and Mexico… the biggest tournament in history, with 48 nations competing for the first time ever.
(And yes, I will keep trolling my better half by insisting she wakes up at 3AM to catch must-see fixtures like Jordan vs. Algeria and Ecuador vs. Curacao)
And watching the build-up, I've been struck by how much it resembles the way most people approach their investments.
You see, every major tournament produces what psychologists call narrative bias.
Fans don't just support their team… they construct a story.
They remember the wins… conviently forget the losses, and by the time the knockout rounds arrive, they genuinely believe the evidence points one way.
Fans are world-class at it. But investors are worse.
When a stock you own drops 15%, narrative bias is what makes you reach for an explanation rather than a question…
"The market is overreacting”
"Short-term noise"
"The fundamentals haven't changed"
Those things might be true.
They also might be the investment equivalent of "we're saving ourselves for the knockouts."
I did this with stocks like Beyond Meat and Asana. For longer than I care to admit, I kept arranging the evidence into a story that flattered my original decision.
The narrative felt coherent… and so the position felt justified.
And I sat with it while the case for holding got progressively weaker.
The position that would have served me was asking a simple question… if I didn't already own this stock, would I buy it today at this price?
That question cuts through narrative completely, because it strips out the sunk cost. And then forces you to look at the situation fresh… but most people avoid it because the answer is uncomfortable.
The World Cup fans who enjoy the tournament most are the ones who watch the games as they actually are… not as they need them to be. They adjust after a bad first half rather than explain it away.
A portfolio managed the same way tends to do considerably better than one built on a story.
Oliver